John C. Davis
The following is the second of a series of posts on party primaries in Arkansas and recent consideration to closing the GOP primaries in the state.
Voter turnout rates are low in Arkansas. As a rule, Arkansans vote in the highest proportion in the following order: general elections with a presidential contest, midterm elections, and then primaries. Perhaps part of the pattern of low turnout can be attributed to Arkansas’s political tradition of one-party politics. For nearly 150 years, the Democrats dominated the state’s politics in such a way that the general election was a forgone conclusion as the winner of the Democratic primary—in almost every contest—was the odds-on favorite to win in November. For the last 10 years, Republicans have become the dominant party in our one-party tradition. Given the impact primaries have on the eventual electoral outcomes in Arkansas, you might think we turn out well for these preliminary contests several months before the general election. However, Arkansas ranks near the bottom when compared to the other 49 states in all elections—including primary elections. Many factors are believed to contribute to this lower turnout such as income and education level—two measures, that, unfortunately, we find ourselves below the national average. In 2024, according to the Arkansas Democratic-Gazette, only approximately 1 out of 5 Arkansas eligible voters placed a vote in the March primaries.
Given this pattern, and the fact that the GOP primaries have grown in popularity in Arkansas as the GOP’s electoral fortunes have dramatically improved, it stands to reason that the GOP primary is, today, the contest with the most at stake in many statewide contests. Still, in a state with low primary turnout, not many of us are exercising our right to vote in these contests. Given this, what would a closed GOP primary mean for the electorate? The application of a closed GOP primary is in doubt at this current time, but if it were executed, it is reasonable to expect a closed GOP primary to have a significant negative impact on turnout and greatly diminish the relatively small number of us who participate in primaries in Arkansas. There are a few reasons for this expectation:
First, a closed primary would likely exclude all potential voters not registered as Republican to participate in the state’s GOP primary. The Secretary of State’s office very kindly shared with me their “Party Count Report for Jurisdictions” and according to the report, there were only 132,133 registered Republican voters in Arkansas, as of May 31, 2024, out of 1,767,400 total registrants. An important note, the Secretary of State figures include registrants with active and inactive status, so these figures are likely inflated. The point here is that a closed primary rule for the GOP primary, if it were enforced today, would permit—at most—only 7.5 % of the voting public to select a GOP ballot, according to Secretary of State report figures. When you consider the figures at the county-level, the issue is even more striking. For examples of how few Arkansas voters are registered Republican: Arkansas county only reports 37 registered Republicans, Calhoun reports 32 and Woodruff has 98.
Even though more and more Arkansans, over the last decade, have increasingly voted for Republican candidates in general elections and primary contests, an overwhelmingly high proportion of us are not registered with either major party. According to the same report, only 12.3% of us identify as a Democrat or a Republican on the voting rolls. This lack of party identification is likely because we have long been an open primary state—where a registered voter could select the party primary ballot of their choosing, but also large numbers of us simply refuse to identify with a party and prefer to see ourselves as “independent.” According to the Arkansas Poll, approximately one-third of us self-report as “independents” when surveyed. Based on election results and a long history of single-party rule in Arkansas, we are quite partisan in our views and voting behavior, but this self-identification might further complicate efforts to encourage registrants to amend their voter registration to “Republican”—even if they already faithfully vote for Republican candidates but see themselves as independent of a party label.
Partisan Identification in Arkansas
| Year | Republican | Democrat | Independent | Other |
| 1999 | 23% | 35% | 31% | 4% |
| 2000 | 23% | 36% | 35% | 9% |
| 2001 | 27% | 33% | 32% | 5% |
| 2002 | 28% | 33% | 33% | 3% |
| 2003 | 24% | 38% | 31% | 4% |
| 2004 | 30% | 35% | 28% | 3% |
| 2005 | 23% | 36% | 33% | 4% |
| 2006 | 23% | 36% | 33% | 3% |
| 2007 | 24% | 39% | 30% | 3% |
| 2008 | 24% | 35% | 33% | 7% |
| 2009 | 24% | 33% | 34% | 7% |
| 2010 | 21% | 28% | 42% | 7% |
| 2011 | 26% | 31% | 34% | 6% |
| 2012 | 29% | 31% | 33% | 3% |
| 2013 | 24% | 30% | 37% | 4% |
| 2014 | 28% | 31% | 33% | 3% |
| 2015 | 27% | 32% | 32% | 3% |
| 2016 | 29% | 25% | 37% | 3% |
| 2017 | 29% | 24% | 35% | 5% |
| 2018 | 32% | 28% | 32% | 6% |
| 2019 | 35% | 23% | 31% | 9% |
| 2020 | 40% | 21% | 33% | 6% |
Source: The Arkansas Poll
Second, given our unfortunate and long-standing history of low turnout and—related high level of political apathy, it seems unlikely the GOP will be able to inform and motivate registered voters to alter their registration status to declaring themselves Republican—even if many of these folks consistently vote for GOP candidates.
Third, even if the GOP can mobilize a massive effort to get would-be voters to amend their registrations, the traditional demographic variables that tend to hinder turnout mentioned earlier are still in play. In short, making it more difficult to participate will likely further diminish an already low participation rate in primary elections—at a time when in many cases across our deep red state—the GOP primary is tantamount to the general election.
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