From Blue to Red: The Rise of the GOP in Arkansas

By John C. Davis

Note: a version of this piece appeared previously in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.

If you’re new to the state or just young enough to not recall otherwise, you might assume that Arkansas has a long history of one-party political dominance, and that the GOP has held power for decades—much like many of its Southern neighbors. You’d be half right. Those who have been in Arkansas long enough, or who have studied the state’s politics, know that until 2010 Arkansas was one of the most Democratic states in the country. In two short election cycles, or just four years, Arkansas switched from being reliably in single-party Democratic control—the last of the Solid South Democratic states—to the GOP possessing all Congressional seats, all state constitutional offices, and seemingly ever-growing majorities in the Arkansas General Assembly. This change was so sweeping, so sudden, that had every elected office been on the ballot in the intervening election cycle, 2012, this dramatic shift might have occurred in just one election cycle. 

To begin, Arkansas is uniquely gifted to have a decades-long tradition of academic scholarship on topics related to its politics. Also, the state has benefited from having at least one daily, statewide newspaper for much of the modern era—making archival research a highly rewarding endeavor. Finally, Arkansas has, as the sports analogy goes, “punched above its weight,” when it comes to political talents. Names like Mills, Fulbright, Bumpers, Pryor, Clinton, and Huckabee, to name only a few, are well known far beyond our state’s borders. 

Building upon these abundant resources, I tasked myself with chronicling the rise of the modern GOP in Arkansas, beginning in the 1960s to the present day. I decided that working within this broad timeframe was the best way to understand the evolution of the state’s partisan politics over the last sixty years—decades that capture the Republican Party’s eras—or, as I refer to them, three generations—from political irrelevance to a competitive out-party in a one-party state, to where it is today—a party whose brand is perfectly aligned with its national image and the preferences of a majority of voters in Arkansas. This, a party that could not find a nominee to run against Democratic incumbent U.S. Senator Mark Pryor in 2008 and whose nominee for governor lost all 75 counties to Democratic incumbent Mike Beebe in 2010, is now, in 2024, stronger than the Democratic Party in any period within at least the last sixty years. In addition to the rich existing literature and my own research and analysis, I also wanted to collect accounts of politicians, journalists, and other academics to gain first-hand accounts and stories of how the state’s politics shifted. These oral histories add layers of context and nuance that would otherwise be missed in a story of vote counts, fundraising dollars, and legislative seats won.  

Today, Arkansas politics resembles many other rural states in the South or Midwest in that it is overwhelmingly Republican. However, that has not always been the case. Arkansas, as recently as the late 2000s could credibly claim to be one of, if not the most, Democratic state in the U.S. For decades, Arkansas appeared to be surrounded by an impenetrable blue wall in a region that was becoming darker red with each election cycle. The last quarter of the 20th century saw a dramatic shift in southern voting patterns. African American voters—which as a voting bloc saw exponential increases in voter registration and participation following the Voting Rights Act of 1965—trended heavily to the Democratic Party and white conservatives—once the driving force of Democratic dominance in the South[ED1]  for 100 years after the Civil War—moved to the Republican ranks. Terms like “secular realignment” and “party sorting” are used to describe this decades-long transition of Southern politics that not only transformed the region but left an undeniable mark on the nation’s partisan politics. What was once the “Solid South”—where most former Confederate states saw one-party dominated Democratic voters from the late 1800s to the 1970s or 1980s—transitioned to the Republican Party as the GOP brand became more and more appealing to white conservative voters and the national Democratic Party became, at least to those who left it, unrecognizably liberal. This shift seemed to happen everywhere in the South—that is, everywhere except in Arkansas, where the state’s politics remained stubbornly aligned with Democratic politics and its state-centric Democratic brand was largely articulated by highly popular incumbents such as Clinton, Bumpers, Pryor, and, later, Beebe. Names that were larger than their party affiliation. Even though the state was long a Democratic stronghold, or perhaps due to it, the “Party” was not of organizational consequence but merely the familiar label by which a majority of political contests—statewide and more local—were settled in the party primaries, months before the General Election; the results of which were mere a formality; a forgone conclusion. After all, the perception was that Democratic elected officials in the state were largely aligned with the state’s moderate to conservative voters or at least effectively navigated a difficult balance between an Arkansas brand and the Party’s more liberal national identity. And so it went for several decades. Political scientists and historians writing about the fall of Democratic politics in the South offered a footnote for Arkansas as it continued, with some notable interruptions, to be a largely one-party Democratic state in the South—an oddity to be discussed and analyzed. 

On the morning of Election Day 2010, Democrats occupied three of the four Arkansas seats in the US House of Representatives, both US Senate seats, all state constitutional offices, and decisive majorities in both chambers of the Arkansas General Assembly. By the time votes were counted that evening, it was clear that the balance of power had shifted. Within four years—two election cycles—Arkansas Republicans would hold all six US congressional positions and every state constitutional seat, and they would claim growing supermajorities in both state chambers. Since then, Republicans have enjoyed robust electoral success in Arkansas—the last remaining state of the “Solid South” held by Democrats. Today, Arkansas is arguably one of the most consistently Republican states in the U.S. It is a state that is as closely aligned with contemporary Republican positions as anywhere in the country. Gone are the days of Arkansas Democratic elected officials dominating the state’s politics by navigating the need to practically apologize for their national party’s more liberal brand as they fostered personal connections with voters, transcending partisan labels. Today, Republicans in Arkansas are closely in line with their party’s national issues—a significant advantage in today’s nationalized media and polarized political landscape. 

How did this happen? What led to this precipitous change? This is what I sought to figure out when I began writing my recently published book, From Blue to Red: The Rise of the GOP in Arkansas. As a native Arkansan and political science professor who studies state politics (especially my home state’s politics), I have the unique combination of personal interest in this topic and a job description that strongly encourages academic research. So I set out to dig deeper into this massive shift in the Natural State’s partisan balance, or, imbalance. Thanks to an extensive body of existing literature on the subject of Arkansas politics—which focused almost exclusively on the era of Democratic dominance—I was able to analyze more recent events in such a way that, I hoped, would explain this historic partisan shift in Arkansas and, perhaps, shifts in the political landscapes of other states as well. 

I found that the partisan change in Arkansas can be organized into three time periods or generations. The first generation began with the election of Governor Winthrop Rockefeller—the state’s first Republican in that office since Reconstruction—in 1966 and continued until another Arkansas governor became President of the United States. Bill Clinton’s presidential victory created a political power vacuum in the state that was only enhanced when Arkansas voters enacted the most stringent term limits on the members of their General Assembly in 1992—both pivotal events that proved advantageous to the GOP later on. It was also during this decades-long period that Arkansans began consistently favoring Republican presidential candidates (unless another Southerner or favorite son was on the ballot)—a clear sign that voters were rejecting the Democratic Party’s more liberal national brand while still strongly supporting Arkansas Democrats down-ticket. Despite moderate gains, and even two GOP governors being elected in this period, the GOP in Arkansas struggled against systemic disadvantages, strong Democratic party identification among Arkansans, and seemingly unbeatable Democratic incumbents. 

The second generation saw a more competitive, albeit minority, party from 1993 to the end of the 2000s. At that point, the GOP in Arkansas was growing a grassroots operation, building its party organization, successfully challenging state-sanctioned barriers to ballot access for primaries, enjoying the growth opportunities that can come from having a co-partisan in the Governor’s Mansion for over ten years—Mike Huckabee—and better aligning itself with the conservative values of a majority of Arkansas voters. Despite all of this, the GOP remained the minority party in what was, mathematically speaking, one of the most Democratic states in the country as recently as 2010. In hindsight, it was only a matter of time before the GOP—finally—was poised for the opportunity to court voters away from generations-deep Democratic loyalties. 

The third generation began in 2010 and continues to this day. By late 2010, it was clear that this next decade would be nothing like the state’s partisan politics before. Democrats in Arkansas were facing a perfect storm as the state’s most popular Democratic elected officials were term-limited, retired, or otherwise nearing their exits from partisan political life just as Arkansas voters overwhelmingly disapproved of the presidency of Barrack Obama (the first non-Southern Democrat elected President since Kennedy in 1960). And, a more nationalized media landscape brought with it nearly a sole focus among voters on national issues—making it all but impossible for Arkansas Democrats to continue to articulate distinctions between their brand of moderate, pragmatic politics, and a more progressive national party. Meanwhile, the GOP—once seemingly rudderless—perceived to only catch an office when Democrats blundered and—even then, often holding it for only a short while, were poised to not only capitalize on the moment but sustain growth in the state for years to come. For years, the GOP had struggled to convince Arkansas voters—white, conservative voters, to be specific—that the Republican Party aligned with their values. Partisan loyalties are stubborn things, passed down from one generation to the next, but by 2014, the Democratic dam had burst in Arkansas and the GOP was finally in position to claim—and grow—its political majorities in the state. 

The fact that Arkansas’s voters seem to have long favored one-party rule over a competitive two-party political system is more common than you might think. What is unusual about the story of Arkansas politics over the last decade is the swiftness and totality of this partisan shift in a state. There was a long period of “blue” followed by the current era of “red” with no “purple” in between. Today, the Republican brand in Arkansas is as strong, or stronger, than the Democratic brand could have boasted decades ago. 

To close, drawing from one of the oral histories I collected for this project, I will share a quote from notable long-time Arkansas Democrat-Gazette journalist and politico, Rex Nelson, “I don’t care if you’re Democrat, Republican, or independent. But if you love Arkansas history like we do, if you love politics, to consider the fact that ten years ago from when we’re taping this—right before the election of 2020—we had heavy Democratic majorities in both the state House and the state Senate; we had seven Democratic Constitutional officers . . . five of the six in our congressional delegation were Democrats. Here we sit, a decade later, with heavy Republican majorities: seven Republican Constitutional officers and six Republican members of the congressional delegation. The speed with which that took off, from a historic stand- point, is just absolutely breathtaking.”

Breathtaking indeed, Mr. Nelson. 

If you are interested in reading my new book, you can purchase From Blue to Red: The Rise of the GOP at your local bookshop or by going to https://www.uapress.com/product/from-blue-to-red/ or https://www.amazon.com/Blue-Red-Rise-GOP-Arkansas/dp/1682262448

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